During an exclusive 麻豆tv大片 panel on September 15, construction industry experts Alex Carrick, Chief Economist for ConstructConnect, and Ken Simonson, Chief Economist for the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), weighed in on what鈥檚 affecting construction material finances the most right now 鈥� as well as where we may find ourselves in the near future.
Watch the panel moderated by 麻豆tv大片 payment expert Allan Francis.
High material prices have been on everyone鈥檚 minds over the past few years, as supply costs have been unstable and heavily weighing on contractors.
Even as some prices stabilize, concerns still remain over the possibility of an economic recession amidst global supply chain problems and geopolitical instability, and the effect that this might have on construction.
What is impacting material prices the most?
When asked what the largest impacts on material prices are, 鈥淭here鈥檚 really quite a number of factors,鈥� said Alex Carrick.
Carrick singled out the COVID-19 pandemic鈥檚 effect, the war in Ukraine, and public health shutdowns in China as major factors.
A common theme is expectations and the impact that uncertainty has had on prices and financial speculation. 鈥淭he pandemic certainly had an influence because heading into the pandemic the expectation, for example, was that housing would really deteriorate鈥nd then housing stayed much stronger than expected, so the price of lumber took off,鈥� Carrick said.
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As for the war in Ukraine, he added, 鈥渢hreatening to cut off supplies of natural gas and oil, and the uncertainty there, caused fossil fuel prices to really increase dramatically, and that had a lot of knock-on effects in terms of agricultural prices.鈥�
The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic by the Chinese government, though effective for public health, has also been also a major factor for construction, said Carrick.
鈥淭he government there has shut down parts whenever they come across even a small number of cases, and so the cost of moving goods across the pacific by container ships has increased tenfold.鈥�
Ken Simonson added that small issues that are not necessarily recurring turned out to make surprisingly large impacts: 鈥�…it continued with the freeze in Texas that shut off the supply of many construction plastics for a while, blockage of the Suez canal鈥 lot of one-off events that both disrupted supply chains and drove prices up.
Huge material price spikes have happened year-over-year
Carrick noted that ConstructConnect鈥檚 analysis had shown huge materials spikes across the board year-over-year when comparing September 2020 to July 2022.
鈥淲e put up graphs for 35 building inputs, and almost all of them have spiked 鈥� and it鈥檚 things that you wouldn鈥檛 normally expect,鈥� he said. 鈥淔or a while cement was up, and flat glass, and even construction equipment, heating equipment, cooling equipment鈥t鈥檚 been very widely distributed, there鈥檚 been spikes in almost all of 35 of these inputs in the construction industry.鈥�
Though material prices have been spiking, both Carrick and Simonson are hopeful that improvements are on the horizon.
鈥淛ust in the last few months, things have started to calm down,鈥� Carrick continued. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 usually stick my neck out and predict what a given index will look like the month out鈥ut I do think we鈥檒l continue to see this downward trend.鈥�
“I can鈥檛 see how it isn鈥檛 going to be a world in which simply living and doing business isn鈥檛 going to be a whole lot more expensive than it was in the past.”
鈥� Alex Carrick, Chief Economist, ConstructConnect
How will material prices change over the next 6, 12, & 24 months?
According to Alex Carrick, there鈥檚 a good chance that things will be easier for contractors financially in the immediate future. 鈥淚 think in the short term we鈥檙e going to see some easing in the difficulty everyone has been having,鈥� Carrick noted.
鈥淸In] the next 6 and 12 months, the outlook is for moderation in prices,鈥� said Carrick. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a slowdown on the way in the economy鈥he increases in interest rates, clearly there鈥檚 reasons to think that the economy, overall, is slowing down. But a lot of the prices are moderating just as a natural fallback.鈥�
Simonson agrees. 鈥淚 do think we鈥檒l see moderation in costs,鈥� he said.
He pointed out that the country is already seeing selective increases in supplies, with major fabrication and manufacturing projects 鈥� like new steel mills and fabrication plants and new semiconductor factories 鈥� already giving a boost to construction work and more hope for the domestic supply chain.
鈥淕enerally [there could be] a downward trend in materials costs increases,鈥� Simonson added. 鈥淚f that index continues to be rising on a year-over-year basis, it鈥檒l be by single digits, not by double digits.鈥�
However, Carrick sees the long-term outlook as being a bit more difficult, saying 鈥淚nflation or not, everything is going to become more expensive.鈥�
鈥淲hat you鈥檝e got to be aware of in terms of your business is that, in the longer term, I can鈥檛 see how it isn鈥檛 going to be a world in which simply living and doing business isn鈥檛 going to be a whole lot more expensive than it was in the past,鈥� he added. 鈥淚鈥檓 very much inclined to think that there might be a next commodity price supercycle and that that will have quite the impact on prices over the long term.鈥�
For Simonson, a major concern in the next few years will be labor.
鈥淭he biggest worry for contractors, and the most persistent one, will be finding enough labor and getting that labor up to an adequate skill level,鈥� he said.
Beyond the lack of available workers currently in the workforce, new government restrictions stemming from the recently-passed federal funding which put major requirements focused on using U.S.-based labor and materials could make it difficult to have enough for projects to even get started quickly.
鈥淥wners can expect projects to take longer,[and] for projects to take longer to launch.鈥�
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think that we鈥檙e in recession鈥nd I think that we鈥檒l escape without a recession.鈥�
鈥� Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors
Is there a recession on the horizon 鈥� and what would it mean for construction businesses?
For those concerned about a recession, it鈥檚 reasonable 鈥� but both Carrick and Simonson are, thankfully, optimistic that this may not happen.
鈥淚n this setting, I don鈥檛 think that we鈥檙e in recession鈥nd I think that we鈥檒l escape without a recession,鈥� said Simonson.
Carrick is similarly calm on the economy鈥檚 situation, saying 鈥淚 don鈥檛 really think of [recession] as a huge concern.鈥�
He notes that the possibilities included in the recently-passed federal Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Acts could lead to new industries and new opportunities as he believes that 鈥渢he U.S. is now serious about confronting climate change.鈥�
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A big part of Carrick鈥檚 optimism is his declaration that 鈥淭he U.S. is starting to think strategically.鈥�
With an emphasis on making more industries domestic, such as semiconductor chips and battery production, more construction opportunities will lay on the horizon. 鈥淚n terms of the whole picture, I鈥檓 very optimistic,鈥� he said.
Of course, it isn鈥檛 all positive. Just because the economy may not be headed directly for a recession, it doesn鈥檛 mean that the economy is about to boom.
Full recession aside, a slowdown is happening
鈥�…there鈥檚 no denying we鈥檙e heading to a slowdown, or we鈥檙e already seeing signs of it,” Simonson said of the construction industry.
鈥淚 think any business that relies on immediate income to pay the costs of construction and the financing is vulnerable to this slowdown. I鈥檓 thinking of apartments, warehouses, office buildings, multi-tenant office buildings, retail, restaurants, and certainly hotels.鈥�
鈥淏ut other types of construction are about to come into the limelight,鈥� he adds. 鈥淣ow we鈥檝e already seen a pickup in many kinds of manufacturing鈥he power and energy sector will be growing quite strongly.鈥�
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Though, due to the slower flow of the new federal funding and meeting the new regulatory requirements, as well as state and local processes for bids, it may take some time for the effects to be felt.
鈥淚t鈥檒l be a 2023 story before we get a pickup in many of the infrastructure categories,鈥� Simonson said.
Impacts of Infrastructure Bill, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act
Both Carrick and Simonson see a lot of positivity in recent government funding, but they also see some hurdles that companies are going to have to get past.
鈥淎ll three of these bills should have positive effects on demand for projects,鈥� said Simonson, though he added that this also adds issues.
The extent of which competing projects will affect worker and materials shortages could be a big roadblock in the future 鈥� and one that he鈥檚 already seeing in his industry analysis.
According to a recent AGC survey, Simonson noted, 鈥�93% of firms said that they were looking for hourly craft workers 鈥� of those, 91% said that positions were hard to fill.鈥�
This, he said, is normal 鈥� but the issue is that the labor shortage isn鈥檛 just related to hourly workers.
鈥溾�hat鈥檚 changed is that 70% of firms said that they had openings for salaried positions, and 89% of those firms said that those positions were hard to fill also,鈥� said Simonson.
Competition from other industries plays a big part in this, said Carrick: 鈥淐ontractors are going to have to be aware that there鈥檚 all kinds of new jobs that are going to be opening up in other areas.鈥�
He added that to stay competitive, contractors will benefit from figuring out how construction can attract a younger workforce.
鈥淵oung adults getting their education are going to have opportunities to work in things like artificial intelligence鈥oing a whole bunch of stuff that was never an option before. So it鈥檚 going to take some real [work] to find things that are going to attract young people into the industry.鈥�
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Stay informed with construction financial resources
麻豆tv大片, AGC, and ConstructConnect have multiple resources you can use to stay up-to-date on construction finance and economic news, material prices, infrastructure funding, and more.
- 麻豆tv大片’s Construction Material Price Tracker tool: See the current price of materials, find the lowest prices among suppliers in your area, and track trends that indicate whether the price is rising or falling.
- : Regular inflation updates published by AGC.
- : A weekly summary of the latest economic news relevant to the construction industry with commentary and analysis from Ken Simonson. Note: This is a paid subscription.
- : Get construction financial news you can use delivered directly to your inbox every two weeks.
- : An up-to-date source for news on national infrastructure funding for construction.
- Surveys, state and metro data, and fact sheets on prices.
- : Webinars, blogs, monthly construction starts, quarterly forecasts, and more.
Contact experts Ken Simonson and Alex Carrick
Ken Simonson:
Alex Carrick: